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A US listing can improve access to capital without making the underlying business more attractive. London has a capital-markets problem. Gambling has an investment problem. The two overlap, but they are not the same thing.
Frank Fantini, founder and publisher emeritus of Eilers-Fantini, thinks the change began before Covid. “There is a tendency to look at the world as pre-Covid and post-Covid,” he says. “But the decline in gaming began earlier than that with the slowdown in new jurisdictions and new projects.”
The US land-based casino market had begun to mature and the number of obvious new markets and projects was shrinking. Online gambling offered a new source of growth, particularly through the expansion of legal sports betting. That opportunity was quickly reflected in share prices.
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“ARGN was created because problem gambling is becoming a bigger issue across Africa and most responsible gambling efforts still happen within individual countries,” Akolade tells iGB. “While many organisations are doing great work, there has been limited opportunity to learn from each other, share research, or work together on common challenges.
“We felt there was a gap for a continent-wide network that could connect organisations, encourage collaboration, and help build a stronger collective voice on player protection. ARGN is not here to replace national organisations or regulators. Its purpose is to support and strengthen the work already being done by bringing people and organisations together.”
But while the ARGN intends to enhance collaboration between stakeholders across the continent, Akolade asserts the aim is to promote “common principles rather than identical regulations”.
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As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.
The research firm estimates that by 2035, financial derivatives, including event contracts linked to commodities, cryptocurrencies and stocks, will account for 49% of turnover on yes/no exchanges, topping sports to become the largest volume driver. The research firm sees event contracts tied to key performance indicators (KPIs) leading the charge.
“We expect new products such as KPI markets, which allow users to trade a single corporate metric, such as production, deliveries, or subscriber growth, rather than the stock price itself,” observe the analysts. “Further, perp futures are expanding from crypto to commodities and single stock perps.”
